Sunday November 8, 2009 9:00 AM ET
SmartMoney
Published September 23, 2008  |  A A A
Common Sense by James B. Stewart (Author Archive)

Summoning the Courage to Continue Investing

As president, FranklinRoosevelt confronted far more dire circumstances than anything we've experienced in my lifetime, let alone last week, and yet he never succumbed to panic, desperation, greed or, most famously, fear.

In 1932, in the depths of the Depression, Roosevelt gave the commencement address at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta: "The country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something."

The proximate cause of last week's crisis in the financial markets, which evidently brought us to the brink of economic catastrophe, was paralysis: the refusal of banks to lend virtually anything, even overnight loans to their fellow bankers; the immediate demands for repayment of collateral and the refusal of investors to trust counterparties; the aversion to all forms of risk, real or perceived.

As paralysis seemed to grip our major financial institutions, I felt some of this myself. One day last week I returned to my desk to find Morgan Stanley (MS) trading at $18 as rumors swirled that it would be forced into a merger by week's end. Goldman Sachs (GS) (whose shares I own) had plunged to $100 as speculation mounted that it, too, couldn't survive as an independent institution. Had anyone told me even a week ago that two of the most venerable and respected names not just on Wall Street but throughout the world stood on the brink of extinction I would have said he or she was delusional.

I told a colleague that this was irrational; Goldman had just reported healthy earnings even under dire circumstances and was worth far more than $100 a share. At the same time, I said I couldn't bring myself to buy. "Who am I, one small investor, to stand before this tsunami?" I felt helpless in the face of forces far greater than myself.

Details of the Bush administration’s bold and costly plan to break this market psychology by providing up to $700 billion to buy the mountains of mortgage-backed debt and other toxic securities which are crushing the balance sheets of financial institutions remain unclear, perhaps by design. Congress can and should debate issues like excessive executive compensation and foreclosure relief, but these are not the issues that have caused today’s crisis. The government needs a bold, simple plan that offers maximum flexibility and jolts the financial heart into beating again.

So I am not going to dwell on the uncertainties and details, important though they are. There have been times in history when we as individuals have been summoned to a higher purpose than partisan ideology or what may seem to be our immediate self interest. This is one of those times.

In times of financial crisis, collective action can achieve what would be unacceptably hazardous for any one individual, J.P. Morgan's 1907 summoning of the country's major bankers to share information on the ongoing financial crisis being one famous example. Deploying principles of Keynesian economics for the first time, Roosevelt borrowed against the future productivity (and tax payments) of American workers to intervene massively in markets and the economy. This past week, we, as taxpayers, have again been asked to stand together in the face of crisis, to the tune of $2,000 for every man, woman and child in the country, the New York Times reported.

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User Comments
Posted by: davew252
'buy on 10% dips'?
If you didn't have the good sense and good fortune to get out at the top, as I did last October, and you are not pulling down 10 grand a month, then what are you going to 'buy on 10% dips' WITH?!?
My 'duty' is to keep investing? In a falling knife?!?
You first, bud.
When the dust settles, THEN I'll take my time and survey the new landscape for the best deals. After the bulltraps snare the all-too-anxious and the 'duty-bound', thank you.
Posted by: DKP50
Oh to all you Nay sayers? > BALONEY!
Fortunes are made Now in times like these..
Why do you think the Likes of Warren Buffet bought into GS? Just for a 10% Dividend?
Go buy your Gold and go hide.. But GLD hasn't hardly Budged since Jan to YTD
Only for those Playing It with Puts and Calls have

Financials Will recover in some form or another and They will Rise back into Major Power and Gains that will make 03' look like Kids play!

Same Doom and Gloamer's were saying the same Garbage back in the Bear Yrs of 2000-early 03' and before that in 98/99 and before that was in 1987..

More Fortunes are made in Bear markets than in Bulls..

And do you really think , that Successfull Investors are going to Share with any of you how they are going to Invest Before they do it or After?

I serve alot of Very Successful People in this business with my Limo business and although they aren't Bragging, but they are making Fortunes with all t...(Read more of this comment)
Posted by: DanFirst
Yes, it could be time to buy condos and homes in places like Boston, MA. It could be good timing and my way of investing and doing 'something for the markets'.
Dan Rao
CEO, OptHome
www.opthome.com

Posted by: apemper
'There have been times in history when we as individuals have been summoned to a higher purpose than partisan ideology or what may seem to be our immediate self interest. This is one of those times.'
I agree, as does Senator Obama. It sounds very Obama'esque. These are indeed special times. I hope you plan to vote for him.
Posted by: drbob66
'my small action, magnified many times by countless other investors willing to act with the courage of their convictions, will withstand the force of a tsunami.'

This is a nice sentiment, but naive...unless you happen to have 5 billion dollars like Warren Buffet (and can therefore get a guaranteed 10% rate of return on your investment), your puny purchase of 50 or 100 shares of GS will be no match for the MILLIONS of hedge fund and institutional dollars that really decide what GS stock (or any stock, for that matter) will be worth at any given time. If you and your friends stand in the middle of the tsunami, the most likely result will be your demise.

Besides, as Mcclusk points out in an earlier comment, GS has somehow gotten a reputation as 'best of breed,' but most of the people who repeat this tired assertion probably have NO IDEA what supposedly makes them so good. Their business model is likely to change dramatically (now that they're no longer an investment ban...(Read more of this comment)
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